What does the future hold for LGBTQ+ Arizonans and Americans
Looking forward to 2025 and looking back at 2024 to understand how to prepare for a challenging future
As we look forward to 2025, we want LGBTQ+ Arizonans to know that Equality Arizona is ready to build with you and to advocate for our community in the halls of government. We have exciting plans in store for 2025, to ensure that you have the community support and information you need to advocate for yourself and your family and friends.
This final newsletter of the year will serve as a review of 2024 and how the political and social environment have changed regarding LGBTQ+ people, as well as a look forward to what we can expect in 2025. Let’s start by looking to the future and what we can expect both in Arizona and from the incoming Trump administration.
Arizona Legislature in 2025
As the 2025 legislative session approaches, Arizona lawmakers have pre-filed several bills that could significantly impact the state's LGBTQ+ community. These proposed legislations primarily target transgender students, focusing on their participation in school activities and access to facilities.
Senate Bill 1002
Introduced by Republican Senator John Kavanagh, Senate Bill 1002 seeks to regulate how public school employees address students concerning pronouns and names that do not align with a student's biological sex. The bill stipulates that school employees are prohibited from knowingly addressing, identifying, or referring to a student under 18 by a pronoun or name that differs from the student's biological sex unless the school receives written permission from the student's parent or guardian. Additionally, the bill mandates that schools must adopt policies to inform parents or guardians if their child requests to be addressed by a pronoun or name that does not correspond with their biological sex.
Senate Bill 1003
Introduced by Republican Senator John Kavanagh, Senate Bill 1003 seeks to restrict transgender students' access to school facilities. The bill mandates that students use locker rooms, bathrooms, and hotel rooms on school trips that correspond with their biological sex, as designated on their birth certificates. This measure has raised concerns among LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue that it could lead to increased discrimination and stigmatization of transgender youth.
Broader Legislative Context
These bills are part of a broader national trend, with numerous states introducing legislation that affects the rights of LGBTQ+ individuals. As of December 2024, at least 120 anti-trans bills have been filed across the United States in anticipation of the 2025 legislative sessions. This surge in proposed legislation has prompted concern among civil rights organizations and LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, who fear potential rollbacks of hard-won protections.
Community Response
In response to these legislative developments, Arizona's LGBTQ+ community and allies are mobilizing to advocate for equality and inclusion. In 2025 Equality Arizona will be running public awareness campaigns, lobbying efforts, and community outreach to counteract the potential negative impacts of the proposed bills. Despite these bills and the many more that will be filed in the new year, we are fully commitment to continuing to fight for LGBTQ+ rights in Arizona with you.
Our Ask of You
You, each and every one of you, will be a critical part of the work for LGBTQ+ equality in the coming years. Equality Arizona has worked with you, the Arizona LGBTQ+ and allied community for more than 30 years. As we all prepare for the fight and challenges ahead of us, we know that it will take an incredible amount of dedication and resources to work for LGBTQ+ equality in 2025. Our opposition is organized, coordinated, and extremely well-funded. That is why we are asking you to make an end of year donation today to Equality Arizona. Help us prepare for 2025 and start the year with the resources we will need to fight for every LGBTQ+ Arizonan.
2025 and the Trump Administration: What to Expect for LGBTQ+ Rights
As Donald J. Trump prepares to begin his second term in January 2025, LGBTQ+ Americans and their allies are bracing for a potential rollback of rights and protections. Trump’s previous term and campaign rhetoric offer clear indications of policy directions his administration might pursue, raising concerns among advocacy groups about the erosion of LGBTQ+ progress.
Possible Anti-LGBTQ+ Policy Directions
Federal Support for Anti-LGBTQ+ Legislation
During the 2024 campaign, Trump signaled support for state-level legislation targeting transgender individuals, particularly youth. The administration could:Endorse federal legislation to ban gender-affirming care for minors.
Push for national restrictions on transgender participation in sports, echoing state-level policies already in place in over 20 states.
Rollback of Healthcare Protections
The Trump administration previously attempted to reinterpret Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act, which prohibits discrimination in healthcare, to exclude protections for LGBTQ+ individuals. A similar initiative could reemerge, potentially denying transgender patients access to necessary medical care.Redefining Sex Discrimination
Trump could seek to narrow the definition of sex discrimination under Title IX and Title VII, reversing the Biden administration’s broader interpretation, which includes protections for sexual orientation and gender identity.Judicial Appointments and Legal Precedents
By continuing to appoint conservative judges to federal courts, including potentially the Supreme Court, the Trump administration could influence rulings on LGBTQ+ issues for decades. This strategy could embolden challenges to existing rights, such as marriage equality and workplace protections.Education Policies
The Department of Education under Trump may reinstate policies that allow schools to restrict LGBTQ+-inclusive curricula and implement "bathroom bills" requiring students to use facilities aligning with their sex assigned at birth.Military Restrictions
Trump’s reinstatement of a transgender military ban during his first term could set the stage for further restrictions on LGBTQ+ individuals serving in the armed forces.International LGBTQ Rights
A shift in foreign policy priorities may deprioritize global LGBTQ+ advocacy efforts, potentially reducing U.S. support for LGBTQ+ rights in international forums and diminishing funding for global equality initiatives.
One of the most concerning areas of potential policy change involves healthcare access and protections for LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly transgender Americans.
Reinterpreting Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)
Section 1557 prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in healthcare settings that receive federal funding. The Trump administration previously attempted to redefine "sex" narrowly, excluding gender identity and sexual orientation from protections. If this policy is reinstated:Healthcare Denials: Providers could legally refuse to offer gender-affirming care to transgender individuals. This includes treatments like hormone replacement therapy, puberty blockers, and surgeries often deemed medically necessary by healthcare professionals.
Insurance Coverage: Insurers might be allowed to exclude gender-affirming treatments from coverage, making these services financially inaccessible for many.
Conscience Protections for Providers
The administration might revive efforts to expand "conscience protections" for healthcare workers, allowing them to refuse treatment on moral or religious grounds. This could disproportionately affect LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly in rural or underserved areas where alternative providers are scarce.HIV/AIDS Programs
LGBTQ+ advocates fear reduced funding for HIV/AIDS prevention programs, particularly those aimed at gay and bisexual men and transgender women. During Trump’s first term, some programs faced scrutiny for their focus on LGBTQ communities, and similar cuts could jeopardize progress in reducing infection rates.Mental Health Services
Policies that stigmatize LGBTQ+ identities or limit healthcare access could exacerbate mental health disparities among LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly youth. A rollback in protections might discourage providers from offering affirming mental health care, leading to higher rates of depression, anxiety, and suicide in these vulnerable populations.
Military Restrictions
The military has long been a battleground for LGBTQ+ rights, and the Trump administration could revisit and expand restrictions on LGBTQ+ service members.
Reinstatement of the Transgender Military Ban
Trump’s first term saw the implementation of a ban preventing most transgender individuals from serving openly in the armed forces. A second-term administration could:Reinstate the policy, requiring transgender service members to either leave the military or serve under their birth-assigned gender without access to gender-affirming medical care.
Expand the ban to include all transgender individuals, even those not seeking gender-affirming treatment.
Targeting LGBTQ+-Inclusive Policies
Beyond transgender service members, the administration could restrict diversity and inclusion initiatives aimed at LGBTQ+ personnel.Leadership Training: Programs addressing unconscious bias or promoting LGBTQ+ inclusivity could be defunded or discontinued.
Pride Recognition: Military installations might be barred from hosting Pride events or raising the Pride flag, which could send a chilling message to LGBTQ+ personnel.
Veteran Services
LGBTQ+ veterans could face barriers to accessing care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), particularly gender-affirming healthcare, which the Biden administration worked to expand. A rollback could undo progress in making VA services inclusive and accessible to transgender veterans.
Resistance and Advocacy
While these potential policies represent a concerning trend, LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations are preparing to counteract such measures. Legal challenges, public protests, and increased voter mobilization efforts are expected to play a central role in resisting regressive policies. Advocacy groups, legal teams, and progressive policymakers will need to prioritize defending existing protections and pushing for inclusive reforms to counter these potential setbacks.
Broader Implications
The rollback of protections under the Trump administration would likely contribute to an atmosphere of increased stigma and marginalization for LGBTQ+ Americans. These policies not only impact individuals directly affected by a single policy change but also signal a broader shift away from recognizing and respecting LGBTQ+ identities as integral parts of American society.
Looking Forward
The policies of the Trump administration in 2025 could shape the landscape for LGBTQ+ rights in the United States for years to come. Advocacy, legal challenges, and grassroots organizing will be critical in preserving and advancing LGBTQ+ equality during this critical period.
2025 and SCOTUS
In December 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a pivotal case challenging Tennessee's Senate Bill 1 (SB1), which prohibits gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors. This case marks the Court's first direct engagement with the constitutionality of such bans, carrying significant implications for transgender rights nationwide.
Background of the Case
Tennessee's SB1, enacted earlier in 2024, bans medical treatments—including puberty blockers and hormone therapies—for minors when used for gender transition purposes. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Tennessee, asserting that SB1 violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment by discriminating based on sex and transgender status. The case escalated to the Supreme Court after lower courts issued conflicting rulings.
Legal Arguments Presented
Sex Discrimination: The DOJ contends that SB1 constitutes facial sex discrimination. Since the law permits certain medical treatments for cisgender minors but prohibits them for transgender minors seeking gender transition, it differentiates based on sex, warranting heightened judicial scrutiny.
Transgender Status Discrimination: The DOJ argues that SB1 discriminates against transgender individuals, a group that meets criteria for heightened protection under the Equal Protection Clause due to a history of discrimination and lack of political power.
Tennessee defends SB1 by asserting that the law regulates medical procedures based on their purposes, not the patient's sex or gender identity, and argues that the state has a legitimate interest in protecting minors from treatments it deems experimental.
Potential Implications for Transgender Americans
The Supreme Court's decision in United States v. Skrmetti could have far-reaching consequences:
Access to Gender-Affirming Care: A ruling upholding SB1 may embolden other states to enact similar bans, significantly restricting access to gender-affirming care for transgender youth nationwide. Conversely, striking down the law could affirm the rights of transgender minors to receive medically recommended treatments.
Legal Precedents on Discrimination: The Court's interpretation of whether such bans constitute sex or transgender status discrimination will influence future cases concerning LGBTQ+ rights and could either strengthen or weaken legal protections against discrimination.
Broader Healthcare Implications: Legal experts caution that the Court's ruling could set precedents affecting other areas of healthcare, potentially impacting access to reproductive services like abortion, in vitro fertilization, and contraception, depending on how the Court addresses issues of bodily autonomy and state regulation of medical treatments.
Conclusion
As the Supreme Court deliberates on United States v. Skrmetti, transgender Americans and their allies await a decision that will not only determine the legality of gender-affirming care bans for minors but also signal the Court's stance on the broader issues of bodily autonomy and equal protection under the law. The outcome is poised to shape the landscape of transgender rights and healthcare access in the United States for years to come.
LGBTQ Politics in 2024: A Year of Struggle and Progress
The year 2024 in the United States was a tumultuous one for LGBTQ+ politics, defined by significant legislative battles, cultural resistance, and landmark achievements. While anti-LGBTQ+ measures gained traction in many states, increasing political engagement and representation offered hope for a more inclusive future.
Anti-LGBTQ Backlash
The most glaring indicator of the challenges facing LGBTQ+ Americans in 2024 was the volume of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation introduced at the state level. According to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), over 570 anti-LGBTQ+ bills were filed in state legislatures, with a focus on restricting the rights of transgender individuals. These bills primarily targeted youth and included bans on gender-affirming healthcare, restrictions on participation in sports, and limits on changing legal gender markers.
Prominent examples included:
Florida: Expanded its controversial “Don’t Say Gay” law to include restrictions on classroom discussions of gender and sexuality across all grade levels.
Texas: Enacted laws criminalizing parents and healthcare providers offering gender-affirming care to minors, with severe penalties attached.
Missouri: Introduced sweeping legislation barring transgender individuals from accessing facilities aligned with their gender identity, including public bathrooms and schools.
These efforts were driven by conservative lawmakers who argued they were protecting children, but they faced significant backlash from LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, medical professionals, and civil rights organizations, who condemned the measures as discriminatory and harmful.
Pro-LGBTQ+ Progress
Amid these challenges, 2024 also saw notable progress in LGBTQ+ representation and rights:
Increased Representation: Julie Johnson made history as the first openly LGBTQ+ individual elected to Congress from the U.S. South. Her election highlighted a shift in attitudes in traditionally conservative regions, signaling broader acceptance and political empowerment for LGBTQ+ Americans.
Judicial Interventions: Federal courts blocked some of the more draconian anti-LGBTQ+ laws, particularly those targeting transgender healthcare, on grounds of constitutional violations. These rulings underscored the judiciary's role in safeguarding civil rights.
Corporate Advocacy: Despite threats of boycotts, numerous corporations reaffirmed their commitment to LGBTQ+ inclusion through Pride campaigns and financial support for advocacy groups. This resilience demonstrated corporate America’s ongoing alignment with LGBTQ+ equality as a core value.
Youth Activism: LGBTQ+ youth played a pivotal role in driving progress. Organizations like the Trevor Project and GLSEN highlighted the mobilization of young people in protests, voter drives, and social media campaigns that pushed back against legislative efforts and brought national attention to LGBTQ+ issues.
Cultural Divides and Electoral Dynamics
LGBTQ+ issues became a flashpoint in the 2024 presidential election, with candidates sharply divided. The incumbent administration emphasized its commitment to protecting LGBTQ+ rights, including reinstating protections for transgender students rolled back by previous administrations. In contrast, several challengers framed LGBTQ+ visibility and rights as part of a broader “culture war,” appealing to conservative bases.
Polling showed that LGBTQ+ rights were a priority for younger voters, with Generation Z and Millennials driving higher turnout in opposition to anti-LGBTQ+ measures. LGBTQ+ Americans themselves were an increasingly influential voting bloc, representing over 7% of the population and a higher share of Democratic voters.
While 2024 revealed stark challenges for LGBTQ+ Americans, it also showcased their resilience and the growing power of allies to effect change. The road ahead remains fraught with obstacles, particularly in states with entrenched opposition to LGBTQ+ rights. However, the year underscored the importance of advocacy, activism, and representation in advancing equality in the face of adversity.