Voting for Equality: US House of Representatives
What you need to know about House races in Arizona and around the country
In the next two weeks we will be releasing our Voting for Equality Newsletter series. These newsletters will focus on key elements of the 2024 election that will have an impact on the state of LGBTQ equality in Arizona and the nation. We hope these newsletters will help you be a more informed voter as you fill out your ballot at home or go to the polls.
Battleground Arizona: 2024 House Races
The 2024 House races in Arizona are shaping up to be intensely competitive, with national implications. The 2022 midterm election results, which saw Republicans gain a 6-3 edge in the state's House delegation, have set the stage for a fierce battle for control of the chamber in 2024. Adding to the intrigue is an open seat in District 8 due to the retirement of Republican Representative Debbie Lesko. Open seats are historically more competitive than races with incumbents.
Two districts in Arizona are attracting significant attention: Districts 1 and 6. Both districts were won by President Biden in 2020 but are currently represented by Republicans. These "Biden-GOP" districts are considered to be among the most competitive in the nation, with a high likelihood of flipping back to Democratic control in the upcoming presidential election year.
District 1: The race in District 1, encompassing affluent areas in Maricopa County, pits seven-term Republican incumbent David Schweikert against Democrat Amish Shah. Shah, a state representative and emergency room doctor, emerged as the winner from a crowded Democratic primary. Schweikert has skipped debates in this election cycle, as he has in previous ones. National forecasts rate this race as a "toss-up."
District 6: District 6, covering most of Pima County including Tucson, will see a rematch of the 2022 race between incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani and Democrat Kirsten Engel. This race is also predicted to be extremely tight.
While Districts 1 and 6 are in the national spotlight, the other Arizona House races are also worth watching:
District 2: Republican Eli Crane, seeking his second term, faces Democrat and former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. Sources categorize this race as solidly or likely Republican.
District 3: With incumbent Ruben Gallego (D) retiring to run for the U.S. Senate, this district becomes an open seat, attracting a field of candidates. The Democratic primary resulted in a very close race between former Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán, with Ansari winning by a mere 39 votes. Ansari will now face Republican Jeff Zink and Green Party candidate Alan Aversa in the general election.
District 4: Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton is seeking his fourth term. Stanton faces a rematch against Republican Kelly Cooper, who won the GOP primary after losing to Stanton in the 2022 general election. This district is considered solidly Democratic.
District 5: This district features a contest between incumbent Republican Andy Biggs and Democrat Katrina Schaffner. This race is considered safe for the incumbent party.
District 7: Longtime Democratic incumbent Raúl Grijalva faces Republican Daniel Francis Butierez Sr. Grijalva has announced that this will be his last election. The race is considered solidly Democratic.
District 8: The open seat created by Lesko's retirement has become a battleground between Republican Abe Hamadeh and Democrat Greg Whitten.
District 9: Republican incumbent Paul Gosar, known for his far-right views, faces Democrat Quacy Smith. This race is rated as solidly or likely Republican.
National Implications
The outcomes of Arizona's House races, particularly in the highly contested Districts 1, 6, and 8, hold significant weight in determining which party will control the House of Representatives following the 2024 election. Sources offer varying predictions. One model predicts that Republicans have a 53% chance of winning the House. Another source suggests that Republicans need to win 11 of the 26 national toss-up races, including Arizona's Districts 1 and 6, to maintain their control of the chamber.
There is no question that Arizona is a crucial battleground state in the fight for control of the House. The state's 2024 House races, with their mix of vulnerable incumbents, open seats, and national implications, promise to be closely watched contests in this election.
Why the 2024 US House Races around the Country are so Important
US House races across the country are poised to be highly competitive, with several races in key states holding the potential to determine which party controls the chamber. According to the Cook Political Report, 43 races are rated as "Toss Up or Worse," meaning they are either highly competitive or leaning toward one party but with the possibility of becoming more closely contested. Sources offer a variety of insights into the dynamics and importance of these races.
Key Factors and Trends
Several factors contribute to the heightened significance of these House races:
National Control: With a slim Republican majority in the House, the outcome of these competitive races will likely determine which party holds the gavel after the 2024 election.
Presidential Election Year: 2024 being a presidential election year typically leads to increased voter turnout, which can influence the outcomes of down-ballot races.
Open Seats: Several districts feature open seats due to incumbents retiring or seeking other offices. Open seats tend to be more competitive, as they lack the advantage of incumbency.
Redistricting: In some states, redistricting has altered district boundaries, potentially changing the political leanings of certain districts and creating new opportunities for challengers.
Toss-up Races to Watch
A number of House races stand out as particularly important and competitive. We have already discussed CD 1 and CD 6 in Arizona, so let’s take a look at some other races around the country.
California: Several California districts are considered toss-ups, including Districts 13, 22, 27, 41, and 45.
Iowa: Districts 1 and 3 in Iowa are rated as toss-ups.
Maine District 2: Democratic incumbent Jared Golden, known for breaking with his party, faces a strong challenge from Republican Austin Theriault in a district that voted for Donald Trump twice.
Michigan Districts 7 and 8: Both districts are open seats with competitive races.
Nebraska District 2: Republican Don Bacon faces a rematch against Democrat Tony Vargas in a swing district in an otherwise solidly Republican state.
New Mexico District 2: Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez faces a rematch against former Representative Yvette Herrell in a close contest.
New York: Districts 4, 17, and 19 in New York are also rated as toss-up races, featuring competitive matchups between incumbents and challengers.
North Carolina District 1: Democratic incumbent Don Davis faces a challenge from Republican Laurie Buckhout in a potentially tight race.
Ohio District 13: Republicans are targeting this seat held by Democrat Emilia Sykes as a prime pickup opportunity.
Oregon District 5: This race features a contest between first-term Republican Lori Chavez DeRemer and Democrat Janelle Bynum in a district that includes both suburban and rural areas.
Pennsylvania: Districts 7 and 8 in Pennsylvania are both considered swing districts with competitive races.
Virginia District 7: An open seat created by the retirement of Democrat Abigail Spanberger has attracted a competitive field of candidates.
Washington District 3: Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats, faces a rematch against Republican Joe Kent in a district that Trump won twice.
Predictions and Analysis
Various sources offer predictions and analysis of the 2024 House races. One model predicts a 53% chance of Republicans winning the House. Another source suggests that Republicans need to win 11 of the 26 national toss-up races to maintain control.
These predictions highlight the uncertainty and high stakes surrounding the 2024 House elections. The outcome will depend on a multitude of factors, including national political trends, local dynamics within each district, and the effectiveness of individual campaigns.
The most important House races across the country are concentrated in districts with close partisan margins, open seats, and vulnerable incumbents. The outcomes of these races will shape the balance of power in the House and have significant implications for the direction of US politics. In Arizona we have an opportunity to impact the tone and tenor of national politics by voting in our U.S. House of Representatives races - please get out and vote!
Equality Arizona Voter Guide - 2024
Our voter guide is ready for you to use and share widely. We created this voter guide with to answer a question we are asked all the time: “How can I make sure my vote advances equality for all?”
We have done our best to answer that question with this voter guide. While no one can predict how anyone elected to office will behave, we think these candidates present the best opportunity for us, as a community, to work for, organize for, and advocate for equality.
You can find our voter guide by clicking here.
