Voting for Equality: Election Day!
Election Day is finally here and we hope you have voted or plan to vote today
Election Day Thoughts from EQAZ President, Michael Soto
Election Day is one of my favorite days. As an Arizonan, I am very lucky because my vote counts at every level of government, including for the Presidential race. As a swing state voter I feel an enormous responsibility to vote in every election, this one even more so - I hope you do too.
I know this election has been a rollercoaster of events and emotions. I want to take a moment to recognize the emotional and psychological toll this election has taken on LGBTQ+ Arizonans and Americans. I don’t think we can overstate the negative impact of months of articles, opinion pieces, and ads targeting our community in an attempt to turn out voters through fear fearmongering. There is no justification for this kind of campaigning and it speaks volumes about the campaigns that have used this election to spread disinformation about LGBTQ+ Americans.
While this election has obviously had a negative impact on the well-being of so many LGBTQ+ Americans, there is a bright side. We have all had the opportunity through early voting and have the opportunity today to vote for a future where the political discourse of our nation is not based in fear and scapegoating of marginalized people.
I hope that you have already voted or have a plan to vote today. While voting is essential to participating in our democratic republic and ensuring that you have the chance to cast your vote for candidates and issues that will impact our collective future, please remember we are not voting for a hero or someone who has all the answers today - we are voting for candidates that will work with and listen to our community about the conditions and policy solutions we need to make real the greatest aspirations of this nation for every American.
So today vote, help to turn out other voters, and then tomorrow get ready to work, no matter what the outcome of this election is the one thing we know is that there is an incredible amount of work that needs to be done to make this state and nation a place where everyone has an equal opportunity to contribute to society and to thrive.
The Presidential Race: Who will Americans Choose to Lead our Nation?
The 2024 presidential election is a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Polls indicate a tight race both nationally and in key battleground states.
Close Races in Battleground States
Seven swing states are likely to determine the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Polls in these states are extremely close: No candidate leads by more than a single percentage point.
Tiny shifts in voter preference could swing the election either way: Both candidates have states they can likely count on, but need to reach 270 electoral votes to win.
Some experts believe Trump has a slight advantage: He is leading in more battleground states according to polling averages from various sources.
Past elections demonstrate the potential for surprises: In 2016, polls underestimated Trump's support, while in 2022, Democrats outperformed polling averages.
Factors Influencing the Election
Gender gap: Polling suggests a significant gender divide, with women more likely to support Harris and men more likely to support Trump.
Ticket-splitting: Some polls indicate that voters might choose different parties for president and Senate races. For example, in Arizona, Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego is leading Trump-aligned Kari Lake, while the presidential race leans slightly Republican.
Voter realignment: Trump appears to be making inroads with Black, Latino, and young voters, while Democrats' advantage in cities is eroding. Conversely, Democrats are gaining ground in traditionally Republican suburbs.
Occasional voters: A significant portion of the electorate consists of occasional voters who sometimes skip elections. Both campaigns are targeting these voters, recognizing their potential to influence the outcome.
Role of the Supreme Court: Some experts believe the Supreme Court could play a role in deciding the election, as it has done in past close races.
Election Day and Beyond
Early voting has been high: Over 70 million voters have already cast ballots. It is difficult to determine which candidate these voters favor until the ballots are tallied on Election Day.
Election night results might not be decisive: Some states, like Arizona, have a time-consuming process for verifying signatures on early ballots. Close races might require recounts.
Legal challenges are anticipated: Both campaigns are prepared to contest the results, and several election-related lawsuits have already been filed.
The 2024 presidential election is a high-stakes contest with the potential to significantly impact the direction of the country. With a closely divided electorate and a history of unpredictable outcomes, the final result remains uncertain.
Arizona's Legislative Races: A Pivotal Battleground
Arizona's state legislative races are highly competitive and could determine which party controls the legislature. Republicans currently have a slim majority in both the House and Senate, holding 16 out of 30 seats in the Senate and 31 out of 60 seats in the House. Democrats need to flip just one seat in each chamber to force a tie or two seats to gain a majority. Control of the legislature is significant because it impacts the passage of legislation on a range of issues, including gun rights, energy and environmental regulations, and voting restrictions.
Legislative District 2, a swing district in northwest Phoenix, is particularly important and may determine control of the Arizona Senate. The district is considered a toss-up, with the number of unaffiliated voters almost equal to the number of registered Republicans.
Here's a look at some key factors influencing the legislative races:
National Politics: Arizona is a swing state in the presidential election, and the outcome of the presidential race could impact down-ballot races, including the state legislature.
Abortion Rights: Arizona voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that would expand abortion rights in the state. The outcome of this amendment could motivate voters, particularly women, to turn out for the election.
Campaign Spending: Democratic groups have outspent Republicans in the most competitive districts, focusing their message on abortion rights. In Legislative District 2, the Democratic candidate has significantly outraised her opponents.
Voter Turnout: Voter turnout was down significantly in the Arizona primary compared to previous election cycles. The general election turnout is expected to be higher due to the presidential election and the abortion rights ballot initiative, but it's uncertain whether it will reach the high levels of 2020, when 80% of eligible Arizona voters participated.
The outcome of Arizona's legislative races will have significant implications for the state's political landscape and the direction of public policy. The close margins in both chambers and the high stakes involved make Arizona a key battleground to watch in the 2024 election.
Important Arizona Mayoral Races to Watch
In Arizona, the mayoral races in Phoenix and Mesa are highlighted.
Phoenix
The Phoenix mayoral race is between incumbent Kate Gallego and political newcomer Matt Evans.
Gallego's campaign has focused on making Phoenix "future-proofed" by investing in infrastructure and attracting high-paying jobs. Evans' campaign has focused on crime and homelessness, framing the election as an opportunity to take the city back from Democrats.
Evans has repeatedly attacked Gallego, calling her a failed leader. He has also been criticized for antisemitic attacks.
Gallego has largely ignored Evans and focused on her record as mayor, highlighting investments she has championed like an advanced water purification plant and attracting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to the city.
Gallego has a long record of working to make Phoenix a city where everyone can live and thrive. She has a long history of supporting LGBTQ+ equality in Phoenix. She has proven over her terms in office that she knows how to govern for the benefit of the residents of Phoenix. We have every reason to expect that Phoenix will continue to thrive under her continued leadership.
Mesa
The Mesa mayoral race is between current city council member Mark Freeman and former mayor Scott Smith.
Freeman says he is a conservative who prioritizes faith, family, and freedom. He has campaigned on addressing crime and public safety, supporting local businesses, and reducing traffic congestion. He opposes "fiscally irresponsible transportation projects.".
Smith touts his previous successes as mayor and has the endorsement of police and fire unions.
The race has generated some controversy due to late endorsements. Neely and Winkle, two former mayoral candidates, endorsed Smith in a joint video. Freeman criticized Smith for giving a platform to individuals who have made anti-LDS and anti-Israel statements.
Smith defended accepting the endorsements, stating that he was surprised and gratified by their support. He acknowledged Neely's comments about the LDS church were "inappropriate".
Separately, Tyler Bowyer of Turning Point Action endorsed Freeman. For LGBTQ+ Mesa residents and our allies, this endorsement is concerning, as are Freeman’s promise to repeal the Mesa Nondiscrimination Ordinance.