The Challenge Ahead and Why We Need Community More Than Ever
From the second Trump Administration to the Legislative Landscape
Today marks the beginning of the second Trump administration. It would benefit no one to pretend that today is not a difficult day and that the next 4 years are not going to be difficult on LGBTQ+ Americans, our families, and our friends. Mr. Trump has made it clear that he intends to roll back the rights and individual liberty of LGBTQ+ Americans, beginning with transgender people.
He has promised to sign executive orders that starting day one that begin to chip away at the basic rights and dignity afforded to LGBTQ+ Americans. (We will do a deep dive into these orders later this month). While the Republican majority in Congress have already begun the government overreach into the lives of Americans by prioritizing federal laws governing student athletics instead of taking on inflation and other issues vital to the success and future of our nation,
We will do our best to share the facts about these political attacks and attempts to dismantle the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans in the weeks, months, and years to come. We will have to lean on each other during this time and we will. We will weather this time by supporting each other, by continuing to work every day for the rights and dignity of LGBTQ+ Americans, and we will build the state and nation that we all hope for - one where every person is afforded the civil and human rights foundational to a free society.
Anti-Transgender Legislation in 2025…so far
In 2025, anti-transgender legislation continues to be introduced across the United States at both the state and federal levels. These bills aim to restrict the rights of transgender individuals in areas such as healthcare, education, legal recognition, and the ability to exist publicly.
State Legislation
•In 2025, 220 anti-trans bills have been introduced across 33 states.
•One anti-trans bill has passed in 2025.
•In 2024, 672 anti-trans bills were tracked, which was a record-breaking number, and marked the fifth consecutive year of record-breaking numbers of anti-trans bills.
•50 anti-trans bills passed across 17 states in 2024, while 613 failed.
•Education and healthcare bills made up more than half of all bills considered in 2024.
•The most active states for anti-trans legislation in 2024 included Oklahoma, Missouri, and South Carolina.
Federal Legislation
•There are 7 national anti-trans bills being tracked in the U.S. in 2025.
•In 2024, an unprecedented 87 bills were introduced at the federal level.
•These bills span categories such as healthcare, student athletics, the military, incarceration, and education.
•The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act passed in the House of Representatives in January 2025. This bill would rewrite Title IX rules to define sex as "reproductive biology and genetics at birth," effectively banning transgender athletes from competing on teams matching their gender identity at any school receiving federal funding.
•This bill passed 218-206 in the House, with two Democrats breaking ranks to support the Republican measure. However, it would need Democratic support in the Senate to pass there
•Other federal bills in 2025 include those that would:
◦Require the Attorney General to submit to Congress a report relating to violence against women in athletics.
◦Designate "Antifa" as a domestic terrorist organization.
◦Call on the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) to revoke its transgender student-athlete eligibility policy.
◦Designate October 10, 2025, as "American Girls in Sports Day," recognizing the importance of Title IX in protecting biological women in sports.
Types of Bills
•Education: These bills aim to deny students name and pronoun autonomy, forcibly out trans students to their parents, and ban basic gender identity education.
•Healthcare: Many bills seek to prohibit gender-affirming care for both minors and adults, impacting insurance coverage and access to services.
•Sports: These bills seek to ban transgender students from participating in sports consistent with their gender identity.
•Performance: The category of performance bills targets gender non-conforming events and the businesses that host them.
•Bathroom: These bills seek to restrict access to public facilities.
•Employment: Some bills aim to prevent employees from using preferred personal titles or pronouns that do not correspond to their assigned sex at birth.
Specific Examples of Proposed Legislation:
•One Missouri bill would make it a felony for a teacher or school counselor to provide support to a child regarding social transition.
•Another Missouri bill states that requiring employees to share restrooms with members of the opposite sex can create a hostile work environment.
•A Florida bill states that it is false to ascribe to a person a pronoun that does not correspond to such person's sex, and that an employee cannot be asked to provide preferred personal titles or pronouns.
•A New Hampshire bill would require schools to use only the name and pronoun corresponding to the gender listed on a student's birth certificate unless there is written parental permission to do otherwise.
Arizona Bills in 2025
So far we are tracking a few anti-LGBTQ+ bills in the Arizona legislature, including HB2062 introduced by Rep. Fink which is a trans erasure bill, an attempt to write transgender people out of the law by defining sex and gender related words in ways that legally exclude trans people. Even if this bill or others pass both chambers, they are highly unlikely to become law - we anticipate that Governor Hobbs would veto this bill and other anti-LGBTQ+ bills.
Trends and Context
•2024 was the fifth consecutive record-breaking year for total bills considered, following an unprecedented surge in 2023.
•Many bills seek to define "man" and "woman" as being synonymous with "biological sex" assigned at birth.
•There has been an increase in the targeting of trans people at the national level.
•The number of bills seeking to prohibit gender-affirming care has surged in recent years.
•The House rules package for the incoming Congress lists amending Title IX to define sex as "reproductive biology and genetics at birth" as a legislative priority.
•Republicans in Congress are focused on restricting trans health care and reinforcing traditional gender roles, including introducing bills to revoke federal funds from hospitals that provide gender-affirming care and charge doctors who provide that care to minors with felonies.
•Proposed bills also aim to redefine sex under the law to exclude trans people, ban trans people from the military, and dissuade state and federal governments from acknowledging that trans people exist.
Impact of Legislation
•Revoking federal funds for gender-affirming care could cut off care for people who receive Medicare, Medicaid, or a subsidized plan under the Affordable Care Act.
•Many transgender people cannot afford to pay out of pocket for their health care, and without hormone replacement therapy, they may face adverse side effects.
•Gutting federal funding for gender-affirming care could have a chilling effect on hospitals and clinics, leading them to halt care even before it is legally required.
Challenges to Legislation
•Democrats can filibuster bills in the Senate, requiring more than a simple majority to pass legislation.
•It is unclear if enough Democrats in Congress are willing to use the filibuster to defend trans rights.
•Democrats have already compromised on anti-trans policies to get must-pass legislation through Congress.
•President Trump has pledged to carry out several anti-trans policies through executive orders, including investigating healthcare providers, removing providers from Medicare/Medicaid programs, and directing federal agencies to cease programs promoting gender transition.
What We Expect from Trump’s First Round of Executive Orders
Trump's Executive Orders: A Sharp Turn in Policy
President-elect Donald J. Trump is set to begin his presidency with a series of executive orders aimed at reversing many of the policies of the previous administration. These orders, expected to be signed within hours of taking office, signal a sharp turn in direction and an effort to fulfill campaign promises. The executive actions will impact various aspects of American life, including immigration, federal workforce policies, energy, and protections for transgender individuals
Key Areas of Impact
•Immigration: Trump plans to close the border to asylum-seeking migrants and end asylum and birthright citizenship. He intends to involve the U.S. military in border security and declare a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, which would allow him to unilaterally unlock federal funding for border wall construction. He also plans to designate drug cartels as "global terrorists".
•Federal Workforce: Trump intends to end remote work policies and require many agencies to return to in-office work.
•Gender and Diversity: The president plans to establish biological sex definitions for federal workers and as part of revised Title IX guidance to schools. He also plans to remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons and for transgender migrants in U.S. custody. These actions align with the broader trend of anti-transgender legislation that has been seen in states and at the federal level.
•Tariffs and Trade: Trump will direct federal agencies to begin investigating trade practices and assess China’s compliance with a trade deal he signed in 2020. He also intends to order the government to assess the feasibility of creating an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs and duties.
•Energy and the Environment: Trump intends to declare a national energy emergency which could allow him to speed up permitting for pipelines and power plants, as well as roll back regulations that impede domestic energy production. He will also signal an intention to loosen the limits on tailpipe pollution and fuel economy standards. Additionally, he will roll back energy efficiency regulations for dishwashers, shower heads and gas stoves, open the Alaska wilderness to more oil and gas drilling, and eliminate environmental justice programs.
Symbolic and Legal Challenges
Some of the orders Trump will sign are expected to be challenged in court, and some are largely symbolic. For instance, the president cannot change the Constitution on his own, so it is not clear how he plans to end the guarantee of citizenship for those born in the U.S. Similarly, the involvement of the U.S. military in border security is expected to face legal challenges due to the strict limits on how the armed forces can be deployed inside the country.
Anti-Transgender Policies
Trump's executive orders specifically target transgender people. He plans to:
•Establish biological sex definitions for federal workers and as part of revised Title IX guidance to schools. This could affect how transgender individuals are recognized and treated in federal workplaces and educational settings.
•Remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons and for transgender migrants in U.S. custody. This could lead to increased discrimination and potential harm for transgender individuals in these institutions.
•Trump also intends to restrict healthcare for transgender people through executive orders and directing changes through federal agencies.
•He wants to investigate healthcare providers, remove providers of gender affirming care from Medicaid/Medicare programs and direct federal agencies to cease programs promoting gender transition.
These actions would align with anti-trans legislation that has been seen in state legislatures and in Congress.
Other Actions
Trump also intends to delay the ban on TikTok, giving ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese owner, more time to make a sale and satisfy a law that would ban it in the United States.
Conclusion
Trump's expected executive orders represent a major shift in policy direction, particularly in areas such as immigration, energy, and the treatment of transgender individuals. While some of these actions may face legal challenges, they will set the tone for his presidency and signal a significant departure from the previous administration.
Community Perspective: Taking on 2025 and Political Uncertainty as a Gay Arizonan
One of our roles at Equality Arizona is to share the thoughts and perspectives of LGBTQ+ Arizonans. While we can provide information as an organization, we believe that sharing the voices and views of every day people on issues facing our community is of great value and helps us to build stronger ties to one another. As a part of the community perspectives project, please read this article written by Peter Burgoyne.
As we dive into 2025, there are a lot of questions on my mind regarding how this new presidential term will play out, and—closer to home—what adventures will unfold in Arizona under the watch of our new legislature. I am no political scientist or policy expert, but I expect that many people have related questions and concerns, and I hope that sharing my thoughts may be of some use.
My initial reaction to the results of the 2024 election was genuine surprise, followed by serious concern, and now I have settled into the anticipation I feel while seated on a rollercoaster waiting for it to start: I’m gripping the bar a bit harder than necessary, quadruple-checking my restraints, and anxiously trusting that despite the wild ride I’ll be alright in the end. As a cis white gay man, I recognize that the probability of me exiting the next four years unscathed is significantly higher than for many others, and it is important for that to impact my attitudes and actions.
Starting in Arizona, we have a new and even more conservative legislature, such that I expect whatever progress was made last year in the working relationship between state lawmakers and the governor’s office to be fully out the window. As newly elected officials vie for attention by dashing themselves against Governor Hobbs’ veto stamp, I anticipate a high drama year with almost no actual movement, followed by a second dramatic year caused by a tumultuous 2026 gubernatorial race. The results of that election will be heavily dependent on whether our state officials can learn to function together, as well as the general disposition of Arizonans heading into a third year of Donald Trump’s latest presidential term. It is interesting to note that despite the 2024 election’s red executive and legislative leanings, Arizona voters did handily pass Proposition 139, enshrining the right to abortion in the state constitution, and maintained two blue seats in the Senate. I think that we can continue to expect surprises from our state, for better or worse, but I support keeping politicians on their toes.
What big changes can we expect from the new Trump administration this year? I anticipate a theatrical increase in divisive rhetoric and further radicalization at the extreme ends of both major political parties. However, in my optimism I hope that will also help to unify the middle into a reckonable mass. As for policies that may be enacted, my greatest concern is for immigrants, refugees, and our transgender siblings, and I believe that supporting and protecting these groups should be our priority.
I’ve heard many concerns about how the next four years might negatively impact the LGB demographic, but after researching and asking questions of those who know more than I do, I have felt reassured that the direct personal risk for me and those like me is quite low. First, presidents of the United States have significantly less power than most people think they do. As a country we give past presidents and future hopefuls far too much credit—and they encourage us to. Certainly, the attitudes and decisions of an administration impact phenomena such as the economy, voter attitudes, and politics on the world stage, but every movement takes time and can rarely be attributed to any four-year term. Doubtless, each new president reaps the benefits and inherits roadblocks from those who preceded them.
Secondly, I do not think that Donald Trump cares an ounce about gay people one way or the other. Even if he did, the worst thing he could do to affect LGB rights is encourage the Supreme Court to overturn the Obergefell v Hodges decision, or perhaps nominate a new justice to help champion that cause. While the removal of federal guarantees on same-sex marriage would be an upsetting blow, it would in no way dissolve existing marriages or automatically outlaw new ones. In 2022, Joe Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act after it passed through Congress with wide support on both sides of the aisle. This law provides sufficient protection that even if decisions about same-sex marriages were left up to individual states, many already have their own laws securing this right, and all states would be required to fully acknowledge any marriage regardless of where it was solemnized. At worst, many same-sex couples may need to travel out of state for their weddings. Many others may choose to relocate to avoid the sense of rejection potentially present in their home communities (what’s new?), but it is also comforting to remember that polls in 2022 found that nearly 75% of Americans support marriage equality.
In conjunction with marriage, many are concerned about the rights of same-sex couples to adopt and raise children. It is already the case that religious-based agencies are allowed to refuse facilitating adoptions to these families, but outside of that I believe the Respect for Marriage Act’s ability to uphold couples’ claims to a recognized union would prevent secular adoption agencies from dictating which couples they were willing to assist.
It is also worth remembering that many local, state, and federal policies have been put into place to protect LGB individuals from employment and housing discrimination. LGBT advocates have found success in some traditionally conservative areas of Arizona, like Mesa, to enact laws that safeguard the ability of LGB residents to live in dignity. These legal protections provide reassurance that many of our day-to-day activity are at low risk of overnight impact due to the incoming administration.
In the worst-case scenario there may be some frustrating and incredibly inconvenient—though hopefully victorious—legal battles ahead for LGB folks in our country, but I believe our time, concern, and political capital will be better spent elsewhere at present. We live in an environment where division and vitriol are encouraged and rewarded, but I encourage myself and others to allow our anger and our hope to propel us forward, not deeper into the games of party politics. We can foster a nation—and state—of greater unity by getting to know and finding common ground with those around us, including individuals who may have opposing political priorities. Rather than focus on our own fear, I recommend that we will find greater purpose by turning our focus to those who are presently more vulnerable than ourselves. It’s their turn.